Finance desk · Macro · FX · Energy
Macro, FX and energy — short, opinionated coverage written for the people who actually read the tape.
Latest analysis
The FOMC held rates for the second consecutive meeting, but the updated dot plot tells a more complicated story. Three members moved their 2026 cut expectations materially lower, a shift the market hasn't fully priced.
FXUSD/JPY slipped through 152 for the first time this quarter as the Bank of Japan signalled readiness to act. Carry unwinds of this scale typically extend for weeks — here's the position to watch.
CommoditiesBrent has traded in a $6 range for eleven sessions while the dollar index holds 104. The interplay between DXY strength and crude demand expectations is tighter than usual — and the ceiling matters for energy exporters.
MacroThe European Central Bank delivered a 25bp cut — widely expected — but the statement language hardened on inflation persistence. EUR/USD's reaction was muted. The real question is whether the next cut comes before the Fed's.
CommoditiesGold's move above $2,300 has surprised consensus. Central bank accumulation — particularly from BRICS bloc members — is absorbing supply that would normally cap the rally. The ETF flow picture is a secondary factor here, not the primary one.
CryptoThree months after the Bitcoin halving, on-chain liquidity metrics are normalising. Miner sell pressure has been absorbed faster than prior cycles. The question for BTC dominance is whether altcoin rotations can sustain without fresh fiat inflows.
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